Jonathan Hersh, PhD

Research

My research examines how technology—particularly artificial intelligence—affects labor markets, productivity, inequality, and organizational decision-making. I use tools from economics, statistics, and machine learning to measure real-world impacts, often combining large administrative datasets with novel data sources. Much of my work is motivated by a simple question: how do new technologies change what people do, and who benefits as a result?

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Selected Research

These publications are particularly relevant to expert witness matters involving platform economics, website blocking damages, AI performance evaluation, and technology-driven market dynamics.

Communications of the ACM

Fighting Crime Online: Options, evidence, and the empirical case for judicial site blocking in the U.S.

Synthesizes evidence on judicial site blocking as a policy lever for reducing online criminal activity.

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Review of Economic Research on Copyright Issues

From Bootleg to Binge: User Migration and Legal Demand Following Brazil’s MegafilmesHD Shutdown

Analyzes substitution between piracy and legal streaming after platform shutdown, with heterogeneous adoption effects by income.

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Management Science

How APIs Create Growth by Inverting the Firm

Documents growth gains from API adoption and platform openness, while quantifying associated governance and security tradeoffs.

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MIS Quarterly

The Effect of Piracy Website Blocking on Consumer Behavior

Finds that coordinated blocking of multiple piracy sites can meaningfully shift behavior toward legal consumption channels.

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Media-Ready Summaries

Quick-reference summaries for journalists covering AI, labor, and technology policy.

How APIs Create Growth by Inverting the Firm

Finding: API adoption drives firm growth by enabling external developers to build on internal capabilities, but introduces governance and security tradeoffs.

Why it matters: Explains the economic logic behind platform openness—and why restricting API access can be anticompetitive.

Monitoring war destruction from space using machine learning

Finding: Machine learning models trained on satellite imagery can detect conflict-related building destruction at scale.

Why it matters: Won the 2023 BBVA Foundation Award. Enables damage monitoring in conflict zones where ground access is impossible.

The Effect of Piracy Website Blocking on Consumer Behavior

Finding: Coordinated blocking of piracy sites shifts consumer behavior toward legal channels.

Why it matters: Provides the empirical foundation for judicial site-blocking policy in the US and internationally.

Research Interests

  • AI Strategy and Societal Impacts
  • Human-AI Collaboration & Decision Support
  • Platform Economics
  • API and Technology Strategy
  • AI for Social Good & Development

Publications & Working Papers

Preview image for Fighting Crime Online: Options, evidence, and the empirical case for judicial site blocking in the U.S.

Communications of the ACM

Fighting Crime Online: Options, evidence, and the empirical case for judicial site blocking in the U.S.

2025

Synthesizes evidence on judicial site blocking as a policy lever for reducing online criminal activity.

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Preview image for From Bootleg to Binge: User Migration and Legal Demand Following Brazil’s MegafilmesHD Shutdown

Review of Economic Research on Copyright Issues

From Bootleg to Binge: User Migration and Legal Demand Following Brazil’s MegafilmesHD Shutdown

2025

Analyzes substitution between piracy and legal streaming after platform shutdown, with heterogeneous adoption effects by income.

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Preview image for Sweet diversity: Colonial goods and the welfare gains from global trade after 1492

Explorations in Economic History

Sweet diversity: Colonial goods and the welfare gains from global trade after 1492

2023

Estimates large historical welfare gains from imported consumption variety and changing food baskets in Europe.

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Preview image for Poverty from Space: Using High Resolution Satellite Imagery for Estimating Economic Well-being

World Bank Economic Review

Poverty from Space: Using High Resolution Satellite Imagery for Estimating Economic Well-being

2022

Uses high-resolution imagery to estimate consumption and poverty with robust out-of-sample performance.

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Preview image for Car accidents, smartphone adoption and 3G coverage

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Car accidents, smartphone adoption and 3G coverage

2022

Links smartphone diffusion and network coverage to measurable increases in accident risk, with policy implications for road safety.

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Preview image for How APIs Create Growth by Inverting the Firm

Management Science

How APIs Create Growth by Inverting the Firm

2022

Documents growth gains from API adoption and platform openness, while quantifying associated governance and security tradeoffs.

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Preview image for Hybrid U-Net: Semantic segmentation of high-resolution satellite images to detect war destruction

Machine Learning with Applications

Hybrid U-Net: Semantic segmentation of high-resolution satellite images to detect war destruction

2022

Introduces a multi-scale segmentation architecture that improves detection of conflict damage in high-resolution satellite images.

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Preview image for Monitoring war destruction from space using machine learning

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Monitoring war destruction from space using machine learning

2021

Develops machine-learning methods to detect conflict-related infrastructure destruction at scale from satellite imagery.

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Preview image for Open data for algorithms: mapping poverty in Belize using open satellite derived features and machine learning

Information Technology for Development

Open data for algorithms: mapping poverty in Belize using open satellite derived features and machine learning

2021

Shows that open satellite feature sets can improve poverty prediction performance and reduce cost barriers for policy analytics.

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Preview image for The Effect of Piracy Website Blocking on Consumer Behavior

MIS Quarterly

The Effect of Piracy Website Blocking on Consumer Behavior

2020

Finds that coordinated blocking of multiple piracy sites can meaningfully shift behavior toward legal consumption channels.

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Preview image for Big Data in Economics

IZA World of Labor

Big Data in Economics

2018

Explains how high-frequency, high-volume data and machine learning methods are transforming empirical economics and policy design.

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Preview image for Poverty Mapping Using Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on High and Medium Resolution Satellite Images, With an Application in Mexico

NeurIPS 2017 ML for the Developing World Workshop

Poverty Mapping Using Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on High and Medium Resolution Satellite Images, With an Application in Mexico

2017

Demonstrates how CNN models trained on satellite imagery can estimate poverty distribution with meaningful predictive power in low-data settings.

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